Why Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Struggles Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning Ukraine
Accounts of an impending American-Russian leadership meeting have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Just days after Donald Trump said he intended to meet Russia's leader Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told the press at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I will observe what happens."
- Donald Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Disappointment in Kyiv as Zelensky leaves White House empty-handed
The on-again, off-again summit is another twist in the president's attempts to mediate an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange agreement in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in the North African country last week to commemorate that truce deal, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.
"We have to get Russia done," he said.
However, the circumstances that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for almost several years.
Reduced Influence
According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was Israel's move to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered America's Arab allies but gave the president leverage to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump benefited from a long record of supporting Israel dating back to his first term, encompassing his decision to relocate the US embassy to the contested city, to change America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a situation that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.
Combine Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has much less influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has threatened to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the global economy and intensify the war.
At the same time, the US leader has criticized openly Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off information exchange with the country and pausing arms shipments to the country - then to back off in the wake of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.
The president loves to tout his ability to sit down and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the war any nearer a peaceful end.
The Russian president may in fact be exploiting Trump's desire for a settlement – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.
In July, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that Trump would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That bill was afterwards delayed.
Last week, as news emerged that the White House was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then promoted the possible meeting in Hungary.
The following day, the president welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.
The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"You know, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
However the Ukrainian leader later made note of the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he stated.
Thus, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and privately pressuring Zelensky to cede the entire Donbas region – including land Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately decided on calling for a truce along present frontlines – something the Russian government has refused to accept.
On the campaign trail previously, Trump promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently abandoned that pledge, saying that concluding the war is turning out harder than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when both parties wants, or can afford to, give up the fight.