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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, though experts believe PVV stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and established a four-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the previous government in June over disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a election period dominated by issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party becomes the largest party yet is shut out of power. However, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations could take several months, analysts indicate that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based coalition led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.